Session Overview

The London session shows a split market: crypto is extending a sharp risk-off unwind while the US dollar strengthens broadly across G10 pairs. Volatility is elevated to extreme in crypto and metals, and several major equity indices carry confirmed bearish daily trends heading into the ECB decision.

Key Moves

  • UNIUSD: Down -5.96% to 5.9775. The session's sharpest decliner, trading with extreme volatility and a four-bar bearish daily streak.
  • BCHUSD: Down -3.55% to 244.54. Part of a broad crypto selloff accompanied by extreme ATR readings.
  • LTCUSD: Down -2.38% to 51.32, extending its bearish daily sequence.
  • JP225: Up +1.01% to 64,952.0, bucking the region's bearish tone even as instrument momentum reads medium bullish.
  • XAUUSD: Down -0.55% to 4,376.64. Gold slipped despite a bullish daily grade, with instrument momentum reading extreme bearish.

Notable Signals

Two active sell signals remain live. CHFJPY carries confidence 0.8, entry at 189.554, currently -0.3R with MFE 0.15 and a quality score of 7.0. NZDCAD carries confidence 0.72, entry at 0.80555, currently -0.23R with MFE 0.32 and a quality score of 7.0. Both sit within confirmed daily downtrends, consistent with the broader dollar-strong, yen-weak backdrop seen across forex pairs.

Risk Sentiment

Sentiment leans risk-off in crypto but is mixed elsewhere. Gold's decline alongside broad dollar strength suggests a firmer greenback absorbing haven flows rather than a classic risk-off rotation. Confirmed bearish daily trends in US500, US30 and DE40 point to caution in equities, yet JP225 diverges higher, and currency strength readings show the dollar firm while the yen remains weak, a combination that complicates a single-direction read as the session progresses.

Outlook

Attention turns to the ECB's rate decision and monetary policy statement at 12:15 UTC, with the refinancing rate forecast to rise to 2.65% from 2.40%, followed by the press conference at 12:45 UTC. US Core PPI and PPI m/m data follow at 12:30 UTC. Expect volatility to build around these releases, particularly in EUR crosses and gold, given the currently extreme ATR readings across metals and crypto.